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El Nino is a phenomenon of abnormal warming of the ocean surface. This may lead to below average rainfall. The opposite of El Nino is La Nina where the ocean surface cools abnormally leading to higher monsoon. El Nino and La Nina are responsible for major droughts and floods across the world. 2023 has been forecasted as an El Nino Year which will affect the Indian southwest monsoon. Does El Nino have an impact on the equity markets? Let’s see...
We ran a correlation between El Nino Index published by Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) and Nifty 50. The correlation between the two came to 0.02 signifying that El Nino has negligible impact on the Indian equity markets.
Also looking at the El Nino periods between Jun to Aug across various years, we see that Nifty 50 has shown positive returns approximately 50% of times, again suggesting very low impact of El Nino on the markets.
Source: www.climate.gov and NSE Indices
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