Global Risk-Off: Markets Shaken by Escalating US-Iran Tensions and Surging Oil | BNP Paribas Mutual Fund

Global Risk-Off: Markets Shaken by Escalating US-Iran Tensions and Surging Oil

Indian Developments

The Indian equity markets faced a challenging week ending April 2, 2026, as geopolitical tensions triggered a widespread "risk-off" sentiment. The benchmark Nifty 50 closed at 22,713.10, marking a weekly decline of 1.74%. Volatility surged significantly, with the India VIX jumping 11.88% to end at 25.52, reflecting heightened investor anxiety.

Broader market indices also felt the heat; the Nifty Midcap 100 fell 2.15%, while the Nifty Next 50 dropped nearly 3%. Debt markets saw a hardening of yields, with the Nifty 10 yr Benchmark G-Sec index declining by 2.04% during the week.

Sectoral Developments

Major Laggards: High-beta and rate-sensitive sectors bore the brunt of the sell-off. Nifty PSU Bank was the worst performer, crashing 5.24%. This was followed by Nifty Consumer Durables (-4.02%), Nifty Bank (-3.52%), and Nifty Realty (-3.49%).

Sectors in Green: Defying the broader market trend, the IT sector emerged as a major sanctuary for investors. The Nifty IT index surged 4.25%, bolstered by a weakening rupee and its perceived safe-haven status during global turmoil. Nifty Metal also managed a marginal gain of 0.38%.

Global Developments

Global cues remained overwhelmingly negative as investors moved toward safe-haven assets.

  • U.S. Markets: Major indexes finished mixed but mostly lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declined for the fifth consecutive week as investors grappled with shifting geopolitical headlines and oil price volatility.
  • European Markets: The STOXX Europe 600 advanced 0.35% despite economic uncertainty. However, the OECD cut the 2026 eurozone growth forecast to 0.8%, citing the Middle East conflict's impact on costs and demand.
  • Asian Markets: Markets were mixed, with the Nikkei 225 flat. Sentiment was weighed down by Japan's heavy reliance on imported energy, prompting the government to begin releasing state-held oil reserves to combat potential shortages.

Other Markets

  • Brent Crude: $108.14 per barrel
  • Rupee ended the week at ?93.11 against the US dollar
  • 10-Year Benchmark Yield: 7.10%
  • Gold prices closed at Rs 1,46,006 per 10 grams.

Source: www.nseindices.com; MCX Gold Prices; Economic times, Bloomberg.

Data for week ended on April 02, 2026.

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